Having been declared dead more than once in recent years, NATO, and generally the West, seems to be gaining an unexpected second life as effect of the Russian attack on Ukraine and the West’s subsequent support for the besieged country. Its declared defence of the “rules-based world order” seems to have renewed the West’s original sense of being and fuelled its political activism.

Yet, opposing – rightly – authoritarianism and violence is the easy part; the Russian-Ukrainian war represents, like all war-times, a state of emergency in which the international setting appears simple and transparent, allowing for the easy identification of friend and foe, good and bad. But in the long run has so far always prevailed the muddy reality of power politics. The US is bound to focus on the other big players, principally China, and there, its tactics can and will change whenever necessary.

The US will not give up its European bridgehead, but it needs disburdening by a strong, well-armed Europe; however, the EU is farther away from “strategic autonomy” than ever, and it is no actual security provider. Rather, it is the European pillar of NATO that is being reinforced. If the need to contain Russia persists in the forthcoming years, this will strengthen the ‘tough’ post-Socialist countries on the Eastern flank that today are the most committed transatlanticists.

This is not the kind of equal partnership the EU would like to have with the US; but at the same time, this dependence on outer crises may not only force the Europeans to remain alert and sufficiently bellicose, but as well help prolong the EU’s lifespan. Like the West in general, the EU is – at best – a civilisation but no material for any sort of state-building as its manifold inner fault-lines and crises have shown. Without external pressure, those internal issues might consume and eventually paralyse it up to the point of institutional failure. Either way, the US will likely continue to prevail in the West.

Dr Jens Boysen, Collegium Civitas International Relations Department, Jens.Boysen@civitas.edu.pl

02.06.2023