On top of the manifold strategic, economic and normative consequences brought about by the Russian war against Ukraine (which does not seem to be getting anywhere close to any solution) such as the practical end of the OSCE or BRICS’ attempts to circumvent what remains of the US-built post-World War II global financial system, further crises keep hitting and undermining the international order – if “order” still is the apt term to describe the actual global state of affairs. An apparently endless influx of mostly illegal migrants from the Global South into both the EU and the US, as well as consequently growing internal division, threaten to paralyze and even break up those polities from within; at the same time, the surprise (how possible?) attack by Hamas against Israel might escalate into an at least regional or even megaregional conflict involving not only Israel and the US, but also Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and possibly other countries, with no guarantee of any limits to state violence and geopolitical risk-taking. And in the wings there are still China and Taiwan.

The crucial strategic question in all this seems to be – following Paul Kennedy’s concept – whether we are observing, either, the typical final stage of a sinking civilization being additionally assaulted by its would-be successors, or rather, as some prefer to believe (or hope), an eleventh-hour attempt of the swaying hegemonic power to prolong as much as possible its leading global position by activating certain hotspots while it is still strong enough to influence events in a meaningful manner. This way, the rivals may get their fingers burnt and delay their next attempt at overthrowing the incumbent chieftain for some time. However, as the US is already severely overstretched, suffers from diminished international authority and thus has increasing difficulty to impose its will by force or threat, it may now prefer indirect means ceding centre stage to its key allies, whether those agree or not. Either way, the remaining 21^st century might turn into a new iron age for which no region is less prepared physically and psychologically than Europe. At the same time, the Biden administration is driving economic renationalization more brutally than Trump ever managed, the likely loser again being Europe.

Dr Jens Boysen, Collegium Civitas International Relations Department, Jens.Boysen@civitas.edu.pl

10.10.2023